Foreign Office Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Zimbabwe's Leader

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to overthrow the former Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "serious option".

Government Documents Reveal Deliberations on Addressing a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from Tony Blair's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Not Working

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was not working, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach advocated by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Cautionary Notes of Heavy Casualties and Jurisdictional Barriers

It cautioned that military intervention would result in heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a severe human and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we assess that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Recommended

Blair's foreign policy adviser, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "could become a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". The adviser stated that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had recommended critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure the South African president into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.